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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Incerto, Book 1
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Product details
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 8 hours and 57 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Random House Audio
Audible.com Release Date: January 8, 2019
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B07KRN227R
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. In multiple ways. It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to weave a fantastically engaging and entertaining book out of what could very easily be a dry and technical topic is just icing in the cake.I've read all four of Taleb's books and Fooled By Randomness still stands out as my favorite. Although Black Swan is still the most popular, and most controversial, Fooled in many ways is the most practical, as it's the most general and therefore most widely applicable. Everyone should deeply understand the survivorship and hindsight biases, as well as the difference between conditional and unconditional probability.That being said, it's often hard to determine whether the heart of the book is the ideas (which to someone such as myself who has only a Stats 101 background in probability are almost always revelation-inducing) or the author. I can't stress how much I learned from this book that has nothing to do with probability or statistics, just random asides from an erudite and meandering mind. Regardless of your background (or even your interest in probability) you will probable learn some fascinating and/or useful tidbit from Fooled, and probably a whole lot more.
Bad news. You are a fool about to be fooled. Again. And again. Just like everybody else. We are a species of fools. What a circus! But Taleb is a special kind of fool, foolish enough to write an essay on how randomness fools us. Interesting fool, nay? The whole thing feels like a foolish attempt to make us better fools. Even his methodology writing this book is foolish. Speaking his mind and having fun. Fool, fOOl, FOOL! Outrageous even for a brave fool. If you don't take yourself too seriously (say a foolish fool), this book is damn entertaining. Otherwise, this book is very insulting for serious fools. Seems that our carbon-based machinery fails us dealing with the abstract tools (say probability theory) we have been developing to understand nature (say since Pythagoras; just to finish with a foolish guess). Enjoy, you fool.
I know many I think might profit from reading this book. I know few who'd be likely to agree with my assessment, especially after they had read it. With that in mind, how many stars does it deserve? I like it better than the Black Swan.The author has thought deeply about risk and uncertainty. Before reading this I thought I had too. No longer. Perhaps reading this while young would produce a more positive asessment of its value but in one's later years it is more depressing than enlightening. Yes, most of us are fools so what's new in that? Will any readers be made less foolish by reading this? That is really the question.
I really like Nassim's rebel disposition and skepticism when it comes to science. I do, like many people, lean on science to get me closer to the truth. Sometimes too much. Nassim challenges this position based on his experience as a trader and what he's observed over the course of his life. He demonstrates how theories may simply be the theorizer being fooled by random events. That is, the common problem of correlation being mistaken for causation. He's certainly changed my mindset to be more skeptical of elaborate theorizing and to look at the world with more of a bottom-up approach. That is, if something works, knowing the theory of why, doesn't make it necessarily any more valid.
Taleb is of course famous for avoiding bull or bear trend naked bets and protecting himself for black swan events like big bank crashes. His revision of this book was needed but is long read for non-academics.Somewhat personal lifestyle story but serious warnings like those of George E P Box that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." But Taleb adds that modern derivatives and options that lose most of the time but win big infrequently are a great strategy for those with means and patience while crashes wipe out the rest of the naked speculators big time. Enjoyed the ideas and stories. Academics will appreciate the well selected references and explanations of why only are a few have "useful models" in the big human-centric gambling casino that is Wall Street. Economics in general is a fuzzy world to model compared to more deterministic factory machines. So don't stop using statistical methods in that latter world. But protect yourself from human factors in the financial world..
I can tolerate the ego-maniacal writing style, but I cannot abide the enormous errors the author commits when he delves into science.To wit: Taleb posits that Einstein proved Newton wrong. Not true. Einstein showed that Newtonian mechanics failed at the extremes - extremely large (cosmologic) and extremely small (atomic distances). Further, he posits that the poor schlep scientist's odds of success continue to increase as he does more mouse experiments. Untrue if the hypothesis under which the scientist is proceeding is ultimately incorrect. And finally, the author accepts global warming as a given and castigates science for not having recognized the truth of it from random weather events. Taleb, stick your knitting. It's one thing to be ignorant, but another to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
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